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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.